I think the analogy between self-driving and ChatGPT somewhat breaks down once you consider that for self driving to be useful, it has to be 99.99...% perfect to produce something useful (due to safety-criticality), whereas for generating text a) fallacious output does not lead to injury or death and b) humans can correct the output of the tool and have it still be economically useful (as we see with it's use as a writing assistant and also as a coding assistant in the case of Codex). So I don't think that the timelines will be anywhere comparable because the threshold for these kinds of tools is simply lower.

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